Looking at the membership list for the UN Security Council, I’m having trouble figuring out where we’ll get 9 votes for going to war with Iraq. There are 15 members, and 7 “no” votes or abstentions scuttles things. Here’s my list of people who aren’t going to vote “yes”: France, Germany, Pakistan, Russia, Syria, and China. That means if one of Guinea, Mexico, Angola, Cameroon, or Chile just abstains, it’s all over. I’m counting Spain, the US, the UK, and Bulgaria as sure “yes” votes. Certainly the odds are not stacked in our favor, although obviously we’re doing everything we can to induce, cajole, or bully the fence sitters to take our side.
The Washington Post has a quick rundown of what the media is saying in each of the Security Council countries.
Update: I saw on the news tonight that Pakistan is expected to vote in favor of the US/UK resolution and that it’s down to the US to land either Mexico or Chile, which seems doable.