rc3.org Strong opinions weakly held

The same is true for ground transportation. Cities are more affordable than suburbs (or exurbs) when a tank of gas is $60-$70 bucks.

What I think is the saddest part is that people are still in denial about this. I hear folks say all kinds of dumb stuff about energy costs, but my two favorites are, “It’ll go back down,” and “They’ll come up with alternatives to oil.” As to the first, there is no basis for believing that. Oil is a non-renewable commodity, and the demand for it is increasing. As for the second, if they invented solar cars tomorrow, what would change? Would you file the VIN off your car, take the plates off and walk away? Would you expect that your car would have any value towards a trade-in?

This is the crisis that has been coming since the 70′s. It is strange that we don’t recognize it.

Posted by Bill Altreuter on 9 June 2008 @ 9am

So to Bill’s point, my partner is a special education instructional assistant. My commute is a stumble from the bedroom to the guest room, where I keep the laptop, and my primary client is a block or two away.

She drives 45 minutes to work with the kids, and though we could probably afford to live closer to her work, it’s not due to her salary, and most of her coworkers can’t.

If gasoline gets too much more expensive, we’ll figure out something else for health care and she’ll find something closer to home.

Wonder what that’s going to do to Marin County property prices when the mod to low-end workers can’t justify working there any more?

Posted by Dan Lyke on 9 June 2008 @ 2pm

@Bill, I drive a Prius, so hopefully I’ll get something for it, especially when the waiting list gets up to the year-long length.

@Dan, we’re running into the same problem here in Houston, TX. For the last two decades, the emphasis has been on moving out to the ‘burbs–I even took the plunge for 5 years. These have seen phenominal growth, which is one of the reasons I chose to move back to the city (the commute times were creeping up to an hour each way)–the other being that I found the burbs to be boring cultural wastelands, whereas the city had all the arts, theater and museums that I enjoyed.

Now we’re in the market for a house; unfortunately, while Hoston home sales are flat, the prices are still rising, probably because other people are waking up to the fact that commuting from the ‘burbs in an 14-mpg vehicle is unsustainable.

My armchair predictions are that a) SUVs and Truck sales will collapse shortly (~$5-6/gal will kill them dead), and b) ‘burb growth will flatline and/or telecommuting will finally become generally acceptable.

Posted by Bryan on 9 June 2008 @ 6pm