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Strong opinions, weakly held

Month: September 2008 (page 1 of 4)

Managing your own medical care

New York Times writer John Schwartz writes about the current state of online communities for people who are conferring about their own medical conditions. Things have gotten a lot more advanced than the usual “Googling about symptoms” that I occasionally engage in.

Here are some hard numbers on the quality of information that’s available:

Can online information be trusted? The answer, increasingly, is yes. In a study earlier this year, a report in the journal Cancer looked at 343 Web pages about breast cancer that came up in online searches. The researchers found 41 inaccurate statements on 18 sites — an error rate of 5.2 percent. Sites promoting alternative medicine were 15 times as likely to offer false or misleading health information as those sites that promoted conventional medicine, the study found.

Political will

It’s easy to blame the House Republicans for the failure of the $700 billion bailout bill today, but the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza has the real story:

The data suggest that this bill was far from a political winner for members of Congress set to face voters in 36 days.

And, for vulnerable Republicans who believe that the free-spending attitude of Congress and the Bush Administration was either partially or primarily responsible for their ouster from majorities in the House and the Senate in 2006, the idea of floating the federal government another $700 billion was simply unpalatable.

It’s no coincidence then that of the 205 Members who voted in support of the bill today, there is only one — Rep. Chris Shays (R-Conn.) — who finds himself in a difficult reelection race this fall. The list of the 228 “nays” reads like a virtual target list for the two parties.

There’s only one person in Congress who was willing to justify their vote to approve in this political climate. The truth is that there’s nobody in Washington who wants to pass a bill like this, and the fact that only lame ducks and legislators in safe seats are willing to come out and support it tells me that it may very well be awful tasting medicine that we really do need.

Update: FiveThirtyEight has a more detailed breakdown. The “competitive district” effect is not as pronounced as Cillizza makes it sound.

Update 2: It should also be noted for the sake of completeness that Republicans voted two to one against the bill, over the beseeching of the Majority Leader, President, and their Presidential candidate. 60% of Democrats voted for the bill.

Live debate blogging meta-post

The live debate blogging yesterday was great fun, and the Cover It Live software worked really well. Thanks everyone who participated. I did it mainly as an experiment, and I consider the experiment to have been a success. I’ll definitely be live blogging the Vice Presidential debate on Thursday night as well. Please join me.

I learned about Cover It Live from the Houston Chronicle. Their beat writer for the Houston Cougars uses it to live blog football games from the press box. I was impressed with the functionality and wanted an excuse to try it myself, and after Twittering my heart out during the political conventions, I thought using Cover It Live to discuss the debates would work out well.

The only thing I’m not entirely sure about is how happy I am with archiving items in Cover It Live, but it works better than any other tool I’ve seen for managing real-time conversation.

Live blogging the first Presidential Debate

Live blogging of the first Presidential Debate.

The danger of SQL illiteracy

Despite growing interest in other storage media, relational databases are still the dominant data storage medium for Web applications. Indeed, as SQLite and other databases that can be embedded in applications grow in popularity, we’re seeing the use of relational databases expand even further.

It seems to me, though, that actual knowledge of SQL seems to be falling. I blame this on the growing popularity of persistence frameworks that abstract the database away, allowing developers to interact without databases without writing much (or any) SQL. Ruby on Rails has ActiveRecord, Django has its own persistence components, and there are many ORM frameworks for Java that work very well. There are even a number of persistence frameworks for PHP. As developers come to rely on these frameworks, their SQL skills grow rusty. Many developers don’t even learn SQL in depth, period.

This is a big liability. Even if you don’t have to produce SQL to include in your application, you still need to know it to write ad hoc queries. Knowing SQL lets you write a single query to answer questions like, “What’s the average total for orders received from customers in Texas over each of the last six months?” I’ve seen developers try to take care of those kinds of questions by pulling back individual records and aggregating the results in code. They ought to be using SQL efficiently instead.

In the short term, the answer for me is that I’m going to be asking more SQL questions in interviews. If you’re a developer and you’re not incredibly comfortable with SQL, you should probably hit the books. The other thing I’d add is that languages and frameworks come and go, but SQL, CSS, HTML, and JavaScript are going to be with us for a long, long time. Any investment you make in those areas will certainly pay off.

Support the Lupus Walk

In a couple of weeks, I’ll be getting up on a Saturday morning to participate in the Lupus Walk. I participated last year as well, but I didn’t do any fund raising, which kind of defeats the purpose.

My brother in law has lupus as does one of my coworkers, and it’s a really, really crappy disease to have. I also have a neighbor who’s confined to a wheelchair due to lupus, so I worry about the future that other people with lupus face.

My coworker with lupus tells me that she supports the Alliance for Lupus Research because they spend almost all of their money on research. All donations by Lupus Walk sponsors will be dedicated to funding research.

The autoimmune disorders get a lot less attention than the other big name diseases (cancer, HIV, etc), but there are an awful lot of people who have them and they seem to be underfunded in terms of medical research. Most autoimmune disorders have no cure, and the main treatment is “take prednisone.” So any progress made in finding the cause of lupus or in treating it would be huge. The ALR has an FAQ with a lot more information about lupus.

Anyway, if you’d be willing to donate, I have a donor page set up. Thanks in advance for helping out.

Why executive compensation should be on the table

Political blogger Ezra Klein says that making limiting executive compensation a part of the bailout plan is scam.

I disagree.

Most critics argue that penalizing the companies involved serves no good outside of providing catharsis for the taxpayers required to fit the bill. Fed chairman Benjamin Bernanke and Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson argue that penalizing executives will make it more likely that companies will opt out of the plan.

The point of penalizing the companies by limiting executive compensation or through other measures is to keep them out of the plan if they don’t really need to be in it. The basic idea of the bailout plan is that the federal government will purchase debt from banks at some price above the market clearing price. These companies are failing because they hold assets (in the form of securities and derivatives) that nobody knows how to value right now. The government is expected to buy them at roughly the price that the failing banks paid.

If there are no penalties for participating in the bailout program, then every single bank will sell all of its questionable assets to the federal government. Why wouldn’t they? I imagine if the government announced that they were buying up all of the used cars in the country for the original sticker price, there would be no shortage of participants.

Even a very strong bank with a little bad debt should sell off that debt just to cheaply lower its risk. So for this thing to work at all, it has to suck (badly) for a bank to participate in the bailout program.

The bailout is corporate welfare. Welfare is supposed to be for people who have no other option. I don’t know whether limiting executive compensation is the right penalty for participating companies, but some penalties are essential or this is just a handout.

Google on rewriting dynamic URLs

Google says that rewriting dynamic URLs is obsolete as far as they’re concerned. Google has no longer has any problem indexing sites that are built using dynamic URLs.

I prefer frameworks with nice URLs, but if you’re not using one, it’s fine to just go with the standard URLs produced by the application rather than using Web server hacks to make improvements that are no longer needed.

Knocking on doors

The secret to winning campaigns? Knocking on doors. FiveThirtyEight.com has the gritty details. In short, researchers have shown that 12 successful face to face contacts lead to one additional vote for a candidate.

Let’s do a little math. 12 face-to-face contacts is one new voter who would not have otherwise voted that you personally generated. You just doubled your own vote by speaking at the door to twelve voters. Of course, then it comes down to contact rate — how often is the person home that you’re trying to reach. A very low contact rate is probably 10%, and that happens. A very high contact rate can be 50%. Average is in the 25% ballpark. On average, you’d have to knock on 48 doors to generate 12 face-to-face contacts and one additional vote. 48 doors is a pretty standard, approximate walk list.

So if you go out one four-hour walk shift every weekend between now and the election, you’ve generated — on average — six extra votes from people who would not otherwise have voted for your candidate.

That makes me feel guilty for not having knocked on any doors during this election. It sort of makes you wonder what would happen if every hour spent reading political blogs were instead spent volunteering for a campaign.

Our current crisis in a nutshell

In a guest post at the Freakonomics blog, economists Doug Diamond and Anil Kashyap explain the current financial crisis in FAQ form. For example, here’s the nut of the problem with Fannie and Freddie:

Fannie and Freddie were weakly supervised and strayed from the core mission. They began using their subsidized financing to buy mortgage-backed securities which were backed by pools of mortgages that did not meet their usual standards.

Elsewhere at the New York Times, Paul Krugman explains why the bailout plan the Treasury Department is floating is a bad idea: see No deal and Thinking the bailout through.

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