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Strong opinions, weakly held

Month: October 2008 (page 4 of 5)

Journalism 101

Here’s a great quote from John Walcott’s acceptance speech for the I. F. Stone Medal for Journalistic Independence. Walcott won the medal for the Knight-Ridder Washington bureau’s coverage of the push to invade Iraq. Of all the major media outlets, they were the only ones who got it right.

Somehow, the idea has taken hold in Washington journalism that the value of a source is directly proportional to his or her rank, when in my experience the relationship is more often inverse.

Fact checking the copyright industry

Ars Technica has posted an investigative report looking into the numbers the copyright industry uses to justify the legislation it asks for to help fight piracy.

An excerpt:

By more conventional standards of empirical verification, however, the numbers fare less well. Try to follow the thread of citations to their source, and you encounter a fractal tangle of recursive reference that resembles nothing so much as the children’s game known, in less-PC times, as “Chinese whispers,” and these days more often called “Telephone.” Usually, the most respectable-sounding authority to cite for the numbers (the FBI for the dollar amount, Customs for the jobs figure) is also the most prevalent—but in each case, that authoritative “source” proves to be a mere waystation on a long and tortuous journey. So what is the secret origin of these ubiquitous statistics? What doomed planet’s desperate alien statisticians rocketed them to Kansas? Ars did its best to find the fountainhead. Here’s what we discovered.

It strikes me that the estimates bandied about to argue for and against various policies are almost never have any kind of legitimate basis in fact, and yet they are treated as though they are hugely important. I guess numbers just make people feel better. After all, Congress just approved a $700,000,000,000 bailout package with the knowledge that the amount requested was a total guess.

Improving Google Mail Goggles

I think the world is crying out for a mashup of Google Mail Goggles and StupidFilter. Google Mail Goggles is an optional feature for Gmail that will present you with math problems to make sure you think before sending an email when you’re inebriated. StupidFilter analyzes text for “stupidity.”

Wouldn’t it be great if Web browsers and email clients had a tool that could assess the stupidity of text to be posted and then present math problems scaled in difficulty to the degree of stupidity. Thoughtful comment on the status of a project at work? You get 2 + 2. Forwarding an email your crazy uncle sent you about Barack Obama being a Muslim? You get this.

Channeling Nixon

In the 1968 Presidential campaign, Richard Nixon promised to end the war, with what a reporter described as a secret plan to end the war. This promise was effective because it neutralized arguments that he would perpetuate the war. Of course it turned out to be a total lie.

What fascinates me is that having watched John McCain in both debates and in many other forums, I’ve seen him claim that he has secret plans to address all of the problems America faces. He asserts that he knows how to win the war in Iraq, how to win in Afghanistan, how to find Osama bin Laden, how to fix the economy, and that he will take care of veterans. But he refuses to explain how he will accomplish any of these things.

If he has these solutions to these monumental problems, shouldn’t he be broadcasting them in every forum available? These problems are bigger than any one man’s ambitions.

Update: Fred Kaplan makes the same point.

Presidential Debate live blog

Presidential Debate live blog

OK, debate fans. We’re back at it tonight.

Here’s a link to the popup window. I’ll start the live blog roughly 30 minutes before the debate kicks off at 9pm Eastern.

The big question for tonight is whether we’ll see the openly angry McCain or the barely hiding his anger McCain.

Everything needs context

Andrew Sullivan makes a really good point in this blog post. It’s about politics, but it applies to, well, everything:

Of course, without Margaret Thatcher (or her equivalent, Rudy Giuliani), there would be no Bloomberg. The “small c” conservative point here, it seems to me, is that policy should reflect changing times. People forget that Reagan’s attack on government was premised on a particular time and place: America 1980. Ditto Thatcher in Britain 1979.

I think most Obama supporters in America would have been horrified at the extent of state power and trade union abuse in Britain in the 1970s. But today, there are different challenges that require different solutions. I’m a free market conservative, but I cannot defend the speculation and recklessness of the financial markets in the past decade. I’m a fiscal conservative, but I cannot defend the GOP in the 21st century. I’m for low taxes, but realistically there’s no way to get back to fiscal sanity without someone paying higher taxes at some point.

Just as it often makes little sense to criticize the policies of the past without putting them in the proper context, so too does it make little sense to advocate mindlessly adhering to past ideas when the conditions that justified them are no longer present.

The prisoner’s dilemma

For a long time the accepted optimal strategy for the prisoner’s dilemma was tit for tat.

I don’t know if Barack Obama is a student of game theory, but his campaign pursued that strategy throughout. He doesn’t hit at his opponent until they have hit him, but once he’s been hit, his campaign always hits back.

Over the past couple of days, Sarah Palin has repeatedly claimed that Obama pals around with terrorists. Today, the response.

Update: Here’s Barack Obama speaking on this subject:

One of the things we’ve done during this campaign: we don’t throw the first punch, but we’ll throw the last. Because if the American people don’t get the information that is relevant about these candidates and, instead, in the last four weeks, all they are hearing about are smears and Swift Boat tactics, that can have an impact on the election. We have seen it before, and this election is too important to be sitting on the sidelines. If Sen. McCain wants to focus on the issues, then that is what we focus on. But if Sen. McCain wants to have a character debate, that is one that we’re willing to have.

Two posts on transparency

Just wanted to flag two blog posts I’ve seen in the past 24 hours that are on the same topic — transparency.

First, John Gruber explains how Apple is hurting itself by not establishing clear rules on which iPhone applications can be sold in the iTunes store. Anyone who’s interested in building a platform for developers should read this article.

The second is Nate Silver attacking the methodology used by RealClearPolitics in formulating its poll of polls in the Presidential election. RCP changes the composition of it polls without explanation, in what appears to be a partisan fashion. Because they do not hew to any documented methodology, they undermine their own credibility.

Transparency and reputation are the only paths to trust, and absent transparency, a reputation is an easy thing to attack or undermine.

Vice Presidential debate reaction

Just a brief post to get in a few things I didn’t have time to type up during the debate last night. First, Sarah Palin prepared by memorizing a bunch of answers and reciting them back by rote. Anyone who’s ever debated will tell you that the key is having a command of the facts sufficient to craft arguments to challenge and refute your opponent. She wasn’t there. Because of that, she didn’t actually listen to the questions or answers, beyond the point necessary to figure out which memorized answer she was going to give.

From the transcript, here’s the best example (clipping some extra stuff). In the middle of an answer about whether Americans have the stomach for an interventionist foreign policy, Biden says:

With regard to Iraq, I indicated it would be a mistake to — I gave the president the power. I voted for the power because he said he needed it not to go to war but to keep the United States, the UN in line, to keep sanctions on Iraq and not let them be lifted.

And here’s Palin’s response:

Oh, yeah, it’s so obvious I’m a Washington outsider. And someone just not used to the way you guys operate. Because here you voted for the war and now you oppose the war. You’re one who says, as so many politicians do, I was for it before I was against it or vice- versa. Americans are craving that straight talk and just want to know, hey, if you voted for it, tell us why you voted for it and it was a war resolution.

Almost the entire debate was like this. No evidence whatsoever that she was engaging with Biden.

And just because it deserves to be reprinted, an answer from Palin that should scare every American:

IFILL: Governor, you mentioned a moment ago the constitution might give the vice president more power than it has in the past. Do you believe as Vice President Cheney does, that the Executive Branch does not hold complete sway over the office of the vice presidency, that it it is also a member of the Legislative Branch?

PALIN: Well, our founding fathers were very wise there in allowing through the Constitution much flexibility there in the office of the vice president. And we will do what is best for the American people in tapping into that position and ushering in an agenda that is supportive and cooperative with the president’s agenda in that position. Yeah, so I do agree with him that we have a lot of flexibility in there, and we’ll do what we have to do to administer very appropriately the plans that are needed for this nation. And it is my executive experience that is partly to be attributed to my pick as V.P. with McCain, not only as a governor, but earlier on as a mayor, as an oil and gas regulator, as a business owner. It is those years of experience on an executive level that will be put to good use in the White House also.

Guess which one of these candidates has read the Constitution:

PALIN: Of course, we know what a vice president does. And that’s not only to preside over the Senate and will take that position very seriously also. I’m thankful the Constitution would allow a bit more authority given to the vice president if that vice president so chose to exert it in working with the Senate and making sure that we are supportive of the president’s policies and making sure too that our president understands what our strengths are.

BIDEN: The only authority the vice president has from the legislative standpoint is the vote, only when there is a tie vote. He has no authority relative to the Congress.

There’s enough debate reaction everywhere else, so I’ll stop.

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