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Strong opinions, weakly held

Month: April 2009 (page 4 of 5)

Cynicism loses again

I’ve been reading less political news lately. I’m trying to focus on building stuff and learning new ways to build stuff, and that’s crowded most of the political feeds out of my reader. But I still do check in a little every day, and one thing I’m seeing a lot of is effusive praise for the defense budget reforms that President Obama and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates have proposed. Here’s where it’s important to remember that Gates was President Bush’s Secretary of Defense and that Barack Obama asked him to stay on.

Here’s Matthew Yglesias on Gates yesterday:

This is the move that justifies the decision to keep Robert Gates on at the Pentagon. Any new Defense Secretary, no matter how brilliant, would have had to have spent his first three months in office building relationships with the top military commanders and focusing on filling out the DOD civilian staff. Only a Secretary who’s already been in office could have the ability to propose sweeping change.

As Fred Kaplan reminded us yesterday, when Gates was nominated by President Bush in 2006, he recommended exactly the sorts of reforms that were announced this week. So now we can look back and consider the idea that President Obama offered Gates the opportunity to keep his job if he was willing to make those reforms.

Last November, few people seemed to think that Obama may keep Gates because they shared common goals. Here’s Katie Couric expressing a common view you saw in the media — that Obama kept Gates to manufacture credibility on national security issues. Plenty of liberals suspected that keeping Gates was a way for Obama to backpedal on his campaign promises on Iraq — or that Gates would influence Obama to break those promises. Given the shape of things that have happened since, none of those theories have turned out to be correct.

Operating under the assumption that President Obama doesn’t have a plan that serves his own goals rarely leads to solid analysis.

On fraud

Former bank regulator William Black names fraud as the cause of financial crisis. I really liked his definition:

Fraud is deceit. And the essence of fraud is, “I create trust in you, and then I betray that trust, and get you to give me something of value.” And as a result, there’s no more effective acid against trust than fraud, especially fraud by top elites, and that’s what we have.

My complaint about this is that it seems everyone involved was mostly deceiving themselves. People applied for subprime and Alt-A loans so they could move into houses they couldn’t otherwise afford (or to buy houses as investments in hopes of selling them at a profit). Banks sold those loans knowing that people would lie because there was insatiable demand for mortgage-backed securities. Investors bought these securities because they kept going up in value regardless of how crappy they were.

I feel like this was in many ways a fraud we perpetrated on ourselves. People believed what was going on was normal and somehow made sense, when it was clearly unsustainable. So while the fraud explanation sounds good, I think mass self-delusion better explains what occurred.

Becoming a designer

I don’t actually want to be a designer or a usability expert, but I’d like to know more about design and usability. I’m always working on various kinds of Web pages — content pages, listing pages, reports, forms, and so forth. My specialty is server-side programming, but I spend enough time on the output side that I’d like to be better at it.

So where to start? Is Tufte’s The Visual Display of Quantitative Information the best place to start? What are the other good options? I’m not trying to put anyone out of a job, but I’d like the things I build myself to look less terrible.

Identifying people based on their social graph

Bruce Schneier flags a new study in which computer science researchers traced “anonymized” data from social sites back to the real people it is associated with. Interestingly they identify people not through the content that they post but rather through the social graph — they figure out who people are based on who their friends are and who their friends’ friends are.

The researchers are the same ones published a paper last year about de-anonymizing some of the data in the Netflix Prize dataset using a different approach.

Quotable: Alex Payne

Alex Payne on online technical debate:

In practice, the conversations that are most widely heard in the tech community are full of inaccuracies, manufactured drama, ignorance, and unbridled opinion. In discussing these Internet-spanning debates with non-technical friends, comparisons to Hollywood tabloids come first to mind. It’s a time sink for an industry that should be a shining example of how to use the newest of media for constructive debate.

Tim Bray weighs in citing Sturgeon’s Law — 90% of everything is crap, which works both ways. Yeah, most everything is crap, but a bigger pie leads to more crap, but more non-crap too. A rising tide lifts all boats.

Roger Ebert’s love letter to newspapers

Roger Ebert wrote a remarkable recollection of the culture of the newsroom that any fan of newspapers should read. The future of the newspaper business is bleak, but its past is indisputably glorious.

Inside the job numbers

From the “it’s worse than it appears” department: the percentage of men over age 20 with jobs is the lowest it has been since the Bureau of Labor and Statistics started keeping track after World War II. (The fact that the population is aging explains this to a certain degree, but it’s still surprising.)

My zsh adventure

As I discussed a few days ago, I’m always open to a better offer when it comes to tools. Yesterday, Dan Croak write a massive post describing how to set up OS X for Ruby on Rails development. In the post he points to dot files shared on GitHub by Joe Ferris, and mentions that the shell they use is zsh (an alternative to bash that’s based on ksh).

I started wondering about the allure of zsh — I’ve used bash for a long time, and when I started using it, it was the most powerful shell around. I figured that if people were leaving bash for zsh, there must be some compelling reason, and I decided to do some research.

If you’re looking for the zsh argument, Fried CPU outlines the advantages. Item number 4 on his list, “Share history across sessions” was enough to convince me to give it a shot.

After changing my shell with chsh, it was time to start tweaking the shell configuration. I went back and looked at the .zshrc mentioned in Joe Ferris’ post and then I started looking around elsewhere for more. There are a bunch of zsh configuration files at <a href=http://dotfiles.org/.zshrc”>dotfiles.org, and from among them I found _why’s particularly useful. (He has some code that updates the title bar in your Terminal window in a useful fashion that’s a must have.)

We tell ourselves that we live in a rational, scientific society, but Unix configuration files clearly indicate that’s not the case. Various snippets are passed around like bits of ancient lore, with most people who use them having no idea why they do what they do. Count me among the ignorant and possibly superstitious. (See also: sync; sync; halt.) You can find my current zshrc here, but don’t ask me how it works, yet.

The coolest trick I’ve seen zsh pull so far involves svn add. zsh is smart enough to include only files that have not yet been added in the tab completion list when you hit tab after svn add. So if you have a directory of 10 files and only one of them is new, zsh is smart enough to choose that file when you hit tab. I love little bits of brilliance like that.

The secret is that zsh provides a highly extensible system for customizing tab completion, so there are tab completion packages for many tools that handle the special cases. (zsh’s autocompletion library for the kill command is somewhat famous.)

Playing with zsh is the best geeky distraction I’ve found in some time. I’d urge you to check it out.

MP3 2000

Scott Rosenberg reposts a piece on MP3 from 2000. Here’s my favorite sentence:

Today, though, “having” a new music release is beginning to mean something as vague as having a particular file on your computer’s hard drive.

Here in 2009, the idea that having something means that it exists as a file doesn’t seem vague to most people at all. I don’t think it seemed vague to me back then, either. This also led me to wonder when I first encountered MP3 — I know for sure I started using WinAmp in 1997.

Rosenberg’s comments on the wrongheadedness of the music industry are amazing to read in retrospect. The obvious path was out there, and the recording industry is still hesitant to take it.

The downside of URL shorteners

Delicious creator Joshua Schachter has a good post on the downside of URL shorteners. I think his prescription for addressing them as a problem are right:

One important conclusion is that services providing transit (or at least require a shortening service) should at least log all redirects, in case the shortening services disappear. If the data is as important as everyone seems to think, they should own it. And websites that generate very long URLs, such as map sites, could provide their own shortening services. Or, better yet, take steps to keep the URLs from growing monstrous in the first place.

Update: Looks like there’s a larger conversation about URL shorteners going on. Kellan Elliott-McCrea posts about how sites that provide their own shorter alternative URLs should annotate them, and about Flickr providing its own short URLs.

John Gruber linked to David Weiss’ piece on the security implications of URL shortening services. Weiss’ blog is seldom updated, but the posts look to be of exceptionally high quality. Subscribed.

In 2007 there was a big discussion of the problems with URL shorteners. Here’s my post from back then.

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