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Despite the fact that I don’t know what’s going on in Iraq, it seems Bruce Rolston of Flit does. Here’s what he has to say about the torrent of information flowing out from the combat zone: Sitting here, looking at a couple websites, I've been able to build up a 90% accurate picture of the strategic situation. There have been no surprises, no aces up Gen. Franks' sleeve that I didn't see coming hours or days off. Everyone in the world knows, if they care, roughly when the next U.S. armoured division is likely to arrive in Kuwait, how many tanks the U.S. lost yesterday, and to what... imagine how much more you'd have if you were the Iraqi commander and you also had the input of your own recce assets to feed into that. By the way, I highly recommend Flit all the way around. Rolston’s military analysis is the best I’ve seen anywhere. ...

There are lots of times over the past week or two that I’ve wanted to post my two cents about what’s going on in Iraq. I’ll freely admit that I’ve obsessively kept up with what the media tells us is going on, mainly via a few really good Web sites. I’ve had theories about what’s really happening based on what the news tells us, I’ve made predictions to myself and to some people I talk to about what will happen next, and I’ve amateurishly plumbed the mental state of Saddam Hussein, George Bush, and plenty of the other people involved. But I haven’t posted any of that stuff here, and I’m glad about it. In some ways, I think that the way this war is being treated both by the professionals and amateurs is far too dangerously close to the way we watch sports. When people get together to talk about sports, they speculate about why people performed badly in the last game, what play the coach will call next, and what moves their favorite team needs to make to get ready for next season. Most of the fun comes from prognosticating and then hoping against hope that you’re right, because then your fellow fans will see just how smart you are. I’m not saying that this analysis isn’t useful, either in sports or in war, but it’s also self indulgent. And, the bottom line for me is that I’m completely uninformed. If I think I know what’s really going on, I’m just engaging in self deception. ...

Josh Marshall has written a must-read article about the big picture plan of the Bush administration’s possible plan for the Middle East. Is this what the President has in mind? I’m not sure. What I do know is that there are plenty of people who do have the President’s ear who have the scenario that Marshall describes in mind, and it’s really, really scary.

Dick Cheney’s old company, Halliburton, was granted the contract to put out oil well fires in Iraq without a bidding process, and needless to say, this is being viewed with a skeptical eye in the media. That doesn’t make much sense to me. First of all, Dick Cheney was brought in to Halliburton because it relied so much on government business, not because they wanted to break into that market. Secondly, there is no company in the world more qualified to handle the oilfield problems than Halliburton. Thirdly, these fires need to be put out as soon as possible, every delay increases the danger of more fires and more pollution, and of more damage to Iraq’s oil production infrastructure. Going through a bidding process for this sort of work would be silly, because it’s almost guaranteed that Halliburton would win the business anyway. They were extremely effective in the aftermath of the Gulf War in getting the hundreds of oil well fires that the Iraqis lit under control, and it makes sense to give them the business. I’m all for slagging the Bush administration but remember that correlation does not imply causation. By the way, if you’re interested in how putting out oil well fires works, check out this animation courtesy of Wild Well Control. They also have some intersting oil well blowout pictures, if you’re into that sort of thing. ...

Salon has a timely interview with Paul Berman, who wrote the New York Times Magazine article that I linked to this weekend. They also have a Berman’s book, Liberalism and Terrorism, which I’ll probably pick up. Berman’s critique of President Bush, is, sadly, dead on: Q: So you think the way he's presenting this war to the world is really where he's gone wrong. A: Yes, it has been wretched. He’s presented his arguments for going to war partly mendaciously, which has been a disaster. He’s certainly presented them in a confused way, so that people can’t understand his reasoning. He’s aroused a lot of suspicion. Even when he’s made good arguments, he’s made them in ways that are very difficult to understand and have completely failed to get through to the general public. All in all, his inarticulateness has become something of a national security threat for the United States. ...

Another member of the foreign service, Mary Wright, has resigned her post in protest of the Bush administration’s policies. I applaud the bravery of someone who’s willing to give up their career and the service to their country that they seem to very much cherish based on their principles. I don’t agree word for word with her problems with the Bush administration, which she explains quite clearly, but for the most part I do agree with her. It’s a shame to see us lose exactly the sorts of people that I think should be representing our country overseas. ...

Bruce Rolston is doing a better job of analyzing the hazy news of war than anyone I’ve seen on network TV. You can read his thoughts at Flit.

The Philosopher of Islamic Terror: this week’s New York Times Magazine has a lengthy review of the writings of Sayyid Qutb, an Egyptian philosopher whose writings underlie the political and theological philosophies of al-Qaeda. One of the great struggles I’ve gone through since September 11, 2001, is trying to figure out what motivates Osama bin Laden and his followers. Reading this article brings me as close as I think I’ve ever come. Pat answers like “they envy us” or “they hate our freedom” just don’t cut it. Qutb’s theories are, to me, utter and complete madness, but they’re not incoherent, and I can see how they’d be appealing to people who are dealing with the congitive dissonance of feeling pride in their religion and identity while living in the existing circumstances that confront the Muslim world today. This ideology commands its adherents to sacrifice their own lives if that’s what it takes to nudge the world toward the proper practice of Islam. Unless we understand it and respond to it, simply arresting all the terrorists we can find isn’t going to get the job done. ...

I just wanted to post a little bit about how I’m going to handle the ongoing war with Iraq on this weblog. Mostly, I just wanted to say not to expect a lot of posts about what’s going on in the war itself. The news reports from the war are vague and all too often completely inaccurate – that’s the nature of war. The war in Afghanistan and the day to day incidents in other war zones around the world prove that today’s shocking headline is often tomorrow’s embarrassing retraction. So I’m not going to make predictions about what will happen, or really publicly evaluate what is happening because given the lack of information, it’s pointless to try. I watch people with 30 years of experience and better connections than I’ll ever have make asses of themselves repeatedly on television, and I don’t want a part of that game. One thing I am impressed by are people who follow the events as best they can and try to distill them down. So far the best site I’ve seen for that sort of running commentary is Sean Paul Kelly’s weblog. So, for minute to minute updates for what’s said to be going on in the war zone, try his site. ...

A bunch of people have sent me the links to Where is Raed?, a weblog written by an Iraqi who lives in Baghdad. I’ve had this in my bookmarks for awhile, and check in occasionally. Anyway, Paul Boutin is doing some legwork to determine whether “Salam Pax,” the author, is a real Iraqi.