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Strong opinions, weakly held

Author: Rafe (page 49 of 989)

It’s hard not to feel despair at this point

As the big debt ceiling deadline nears, it is becoming increasingly clear that our government is not up to the task of writing a bill that will raise the debt limit and allow the government to function as normal. I am completely persuaded that not raising the debt limit will have disastrous consequences. I am also convinced that President Obama unilaterally raising the debt limit may forestall total disaster, but it won’t save the credibility of the United States government.

We have raised the debt ceiling dozens of times, and the fact that we cannot do so now underscores the fact that the federal government is now completely dysfunctional. Make no mistake — this dysfunction is the fault of the Republicans. For a bill to pass, it has to have the support of Republicans in the House of Representatives and Democrats in the Senate and of course a signature from the President. The House Republicans have chosen to ignore this fact and instead take hostages.

Tonight, it looks like their plan blew up in their face. In the next 72 hours or so, a few dozen Republicans are going to have to decide whether to hold firm with their caucus and destroy the economy, or vote for a bill that Democrats in the House will support. I honestly can’t predict which path they will choose.

Update: This Paul Krugman column makes the case that the media’s failure to clearly point out that the entire debt crisis is the result of Republican attempts to extort policy concessions from the President by threatening the credit line of the US government is a big part of the problem. How are voters supposed to hold politicians accountable if the media is not accurately reporting the degree to which they are complicit in creating our problems?

Screening systems and the base rate fallacy

Kellan Elliott-McCrea has a great post about the high cost of false positives when it comes to building software that detects fraud, spam, abuse, or whatever. The cost of false positives is explained by the base rate fallacy. The BBC explains the base rate fallacy very well. Here’s a snippet:

If 3,000 people are tested, and the test is 90% accurate, it is also 10% wrong. So it will probably identify 301 terrorists – about 300 by mistake and 1 correctly. You won’t know from the test which is the real terrorist. So the chance that our man in the mac is the real thing is 1 in 301.

Anybody who wants to talk about screening systems without an understanding of the base rate fallacy needs to do more homework.

Is a desktop email client in my future?

I haven’t upgraded to OS X Lion yet, but when I do, I’m curious to try out the new version of the Mail application. I have been a dedicated user of Gmail for years, but I’m wondering if I might find using a desktop application more productive.

A couple of months ago, I switched from Google Reader to the latest version of NetNewsWire Lite. For years I was having trouble keeping up with my feeds, but since switching to the desktop application, I’ve had no problem staying on top of them, even though I have just as many subscriptions. I’m still not sure why. The desktop interface is snappier, but the keyboard shortcuts in NetNewsWire aren’t any easier to deal with than the ones provided by Google Reader.

I’m wondering if switching back to a desktop app for mail might not have the same effect. The thing that keeps me using Gmail is the conversation management. If it works as well in the new Mail app from Apple, I’m going to give it a real shot. I’m curious to find out.

How to manage the comments section of your blog

Anil Dash has written up what he’s learned about virtual communities in the past 12 years in a post titled, If your website’s full of assholes, it’s your fault. The larger point is that there’s no reason to accept as a given that people act like jerks on the Internet. People act like jerks in online spaces where they’re given free rein to act like jerks.

He has a lot of good advice on policing communities for companies running large sites. I want to weigh in with just one piece of advice for people running smaller sites. If you are an individual blogger and you want to raise the quality of the comments on your site, the most important thing you can do is be present in the comments. And I don’t just mean reading them, you need to post as well.

The first step toward things getting out of hand is people responding to posts on a blog and not getting any kind of follow up at all. When people assume that they’re being ignored, their behavior tends to get worse. Soon, the commenters are fighting among themselves and savaging anybody new who happens to show up.

My recipe for the managing the comments on this blog is simple. I moderate the first post from everyone, once you’ve had a comment approved you can comment freely. I read everything. I respond to stuff that calls for it. I delete (or never approve) comments that fall below the standards I set for the site. That almost never happens, but I feel no guilt when it comes to deleting truly obnoxious comments. I’ve never had to ban anyone, but I would in a second if someone were persistently obnoxious. I also get rid of anything that even looks a little bit like spam.

Overall, I’m extremely happy with the quality of comments here. Hopefully the extent to which I manage them is basically invisible.

Laptop docks are suddenly obsolete

It’s always interesting to observe when a piece of technology suddenly becomes obsolete. As of this morning, we can add the laptop dock to that list.

Laptop dock

One of the pains of laptop ownership is dealing with cables. When I sit down in the morning, I connect my laptop to the power outlet, an external monitor, and my keyboard. Many laptop makers address this problem with a peripheral like the one above. All of your cables plug into a dock. To use them, you just slide your laptop onto the dock. Some have custom proprietary dock connectors, in other cases, the dock actually connects to all of the individual ports on the laptop.

Apple is taking a different approach. They’ve added all of the ports you’ll normally use to their new generation of displays, and they use a Thunderbolt cable to handle the communication for all of those ports using a single cable. To connect, you just plug in the Thunderbolt cable and the power cable from the monitor. You can even daisy chain multiple monitors through a single Thunderbolt connection.

From what I’ve read, USB3 will provide similar capabilities in terms of letting users connect multiple, high-bandwidth peripherals through a single port. I would predict that we’d see lots of companies migrate toward offering monitors that act as full-featured docking stations for laptops, but I’m not so sure. Other companies don’t seem to be as interested in making the monitor a hub for laptops as Apple is. One thing’s for sure, conveniences like this help explain why people will pay $999 for an Apple monitor rather than $300 to $500 for a similar display from other companies.

Why Netflix is unbundling streaming from DVD rental

Here’s the clearest explanation I’ve seen of why Netflix is splitting up the DVD and online parts of your subscription, courtesy of Felix Salmon:

Up until now, it seems, Netflix has paid the studios a flat monthly fee, linked to the number of subscribers it has with access to their content. And when that got too expensive, it wound up cutting off streaming from its DVD subscribers to save on its own library-subscription costs.

Zimran Ahmed on bubbles

Zimran Ahmed points out the most important feature of the growing tech bubble:

The defining characteristics of bubbles is that some chump is left holding the bag at the end. In this bubble, the chumps are VCs unless they can trigger a big stock market boom.

More on the terrible burden of patents

In my previous post, I complained about patent trolls — obscure companies using their patent portfolios to attack developers who have no practical way to determine whether or not they’re violating somebody’s patent when they write software. But big, innovative companies who file for patents and use those patents offensively are just as bad, if not worse.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt takes a look at one of the patents that Apple has accused Android handset-maker HTC of violating. In this case, the patent is easy to understand and is associated with a popular and well-known feature of iOS. The patent in question is for the feature that enables iOS to detect data like phone numbers or addresses in text that is being displayed and turn them into links that allow the user to perform the appropriate action — dialing the number on the phone or launching the Maps application with a map of the address.

In this case, I’d argue that the patent fails the test of obviousness. Nobody who designed a phone that displays text would not think to enable users to dial phone numbers embedded in that text by tapping on the number. I’d also guess that there’s plenty of prior art in this area as well. Certainly this is related to the work done on microformats.

There are also email clients going way back that automatically made email addresses embedded in messages clickable. There are even ad schemes that scan pages and convert keywords into ads automatically. The feature in question is useful but not innovative. And yet Apple is finding success petitioning the International Trade Commission to enforce this patent.

Unfortunately, as obvious as it seems to me that the entire system is a disaster, I don’t see any path forward for patent reform in the near future.

The present and future of intellectual property law

Craig Hockenberry warns of the number one threat to small, independent development shops — patent and copyright trolls:

The scary part is that these infringements can happen with any part of our products or websites: things that you’d never imagine being a violation of someone else’s intellectual property. It feels like coding in a mine field.

From our experience, it’s entirely possible that all the revenue for a product can be eaten up by legal fees. After years of pouring your heart and soul into that product, it’s devastating. It makes you question why the hell you’re in the business: when you can’t pay salaries from product sales, there’s no point in building it in the first place.

Can you remember the last time you read a news story that made you thankful for patents or copyright law? I can’t. I had to sit on this post overnight as I thought about whether I was in favor of abolishing the entire intellectual property regime. As it turns out, I’m not. There are three major areas of intellectual property law, patents, trademark, and copyright.

Trademark law has the strongest leg to stand on. It seems pretty clear that people should, for the most part, be able to trust that something with a certain name is produced by the company with that name. Going to the grocery store and seeing shelves of drinks called “Coca Cola” that were produced by different companies would be confusing. And without laws to prevent it, that would certainly happen. Furthermore, it’s easy to see that trademark law is working effectively because companies generally do trademark searches before they name products. Releasing a product with a name that has a trademark conflict is seen as a huge gaffe. That’s a sign of an effective legal regime.

Copyright is horribly abused, and the routine practice of extending copyright indefinitely is incredibly pernicious, but I also think it has value. I don’t think I should be able to launch a site called the Rafeington Post that just publishes the full text of all of the stories from the New York Times that I happen to find interesting. I should be required to give them a light rewrite like that other site does. In a general sense, I should not have to compete with bootlegs of my own work as soon as bootleggers are able to start making copies of it. Again, people who copy others’ work outright understand that they’re in violation of copyright law, even if they don’t care.

I am inclined to argue that patents should go away entirely, with the caveat that I’m not entirely sure how they work in industries other than my own. In software, though, patents are never, to my knowledge, taken into account at any time during the product development process. Patents are generally too opaque to even try to compare to products that are in development. Furthermore, the computer industry is built on imitation. One day, there were no popular phones built entirely around a touch screen interface. Apple came up with the iPhone, and not long after, touch screen phones that looked very, very similar to the iPhone were everywhere. I don’t think that it could be argued that this has hurt consumers. Apple remains incredibly profitable, and mobile phones are evolving rapidly, much to the benefit of users.

People in computing produce the products that they think will be most successful and rely on luck to keep them out of the crosshairs of ruinous patent litigation. Because there are so many patents, and because of the way they are evaluated, there is no way to easily figure out which patents you might violate with a product or how to get around violating those patents. In the end, the application of patent law is completely arbitrary. Given that a system cannot be both just and arbitrary, I come down on the side of eliminating patents entirely, although I suppose I could be convinced otherwise.

In the end, the laws that are meant to protect creativity and innovation instead often stifle them. Cory Doctorow recently reviewed a book that shows that the Beastie Boys’ album Paul’s Boutique would have lost $19.8 million had all of the samples been cleared under today’s regime. And on a more speculative note, Matthew Yglesias also points out that intellectual property laws could in the end be the primary barrier between us and a utopian future.

Happy birthday, MetaFilter!

This week is MetaFilter‘s twelfth anniversary. To commemorate the event, Matt Haughey purchased the first domain ever linked to from MeFi and posted a stories of how members of community originally found the site and what it has meant to them.

Matt, recently featured on the cover of his local alternative newsweekly, was a member of the original blogging community. There are a few blogs still kicking that were born in 1999 (mine was technically born in 1998), and Matt was a member of that group. He was cleverer and more generous than most of us, though. Rather than creating a space to post his own thoughts, he built a site where anyone could post links and comment on them.

At the time, I thought it was a crazy idea. Someone created a mailing list that some of the early bloggers were using to discuss ideas for a blogging-related startup. It was the height of the dot com bubble and we felt we all ought to be able to capitalize on this great idea that we’d all latched onto. Little did we know at the time that Matt already had the great idea — empower the community and lovingly care for it.

Here’s to twelve more years.

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