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Tag: politics (page 16 of 23)

Live blogging the first Presidential Debate

Live blogging of the first Presidential Debate.

Knocking on doors

The secret to winning campaigns? Knocking on doors. FiveThirtyEight.com has the gritty details. In short, researchers have shown that 12 successful face to face contacts lead to one additional vote for a candidate.

Let’s do a little math. 12 face-to-face contacts is one new voter who would not have otherwise voted that you personally generated. You just doubled your own vote by speaking at the door to twelve voters. Of course, then it comes down to contact rate — how often is the person home that you’re trying to reach. A very low contact rate is probably 10%, and that happens. A very high contact rate can be 50%. Average is in the 25% ballpark. On average, you’d have to knock on 48 doors to generate 12 face-to-face contacts and one additional vote. 48 doors is a pretty standard, approximate walk list.

So if you go out one four-hour walk shift every weekend between now and the election, you’ve generated — on average — six extra votes from people who would not otherwise have voted for your candidate.

That makes me feel guilty for not having knocked on any doors during this election. It sort of makes you wonder what would happen if every hour spent reading political blogs were instead spent volunteering for a campaign.

Old votes or new proposals

Time’s Michael Scherer argues that criticizing a politician’s old votes when they’re easier to attack than their new proposals is unfair. Here’s what he says:

Here’s an old political consultant trick: You want attack your opponent for supporting Policy X, because your pollsters tell you such an attack would help your candidate. But there’s a problem. Your opponent doesn’t clearly support Policy X. So you send off researchers to find an old legislative vote that you can use in an ad to mislead the public about your opponent’s plans, without lying outright. Instead of saying “My opponent supports Policy X,” all you have to say is “My opponent once voted for something that sounded a lot like Policy X. Be very afraid.”

I don’t necessarily agree with him that this is necessarily unfair. To show that I’m not just being an Obama partisan on this, let me provide an example that pertains to my preferred candidate. Obama’s tax plan promises to lower taxes for everyone making less than $250,000. Sounds good to me, but campaign promises are cheap. I think McCain is perfectly justified in going through Obama’s voting record and arguing that given his history, this is a promise he is unlikely to keep. (McCain’s people constantly claim that Obama is going to raise taxes on the middle class, and the Obama people argue that they’re lying because Obama has promised to lower their taxes. I think there’s space to confront a candidate with their own legislative history as long as it’s done honestly.)

I think it’s out of bounds to intentionally distort your opponent’s record. For example, the claim that Obama supported sex education for kindergarteners was dishonest and unfair.

But if nothing else, if a policy you propose differs with the votes a politician has previously made, they ought to be obliged to reconcile their voting history with what they claim they want to implement.

Saying what I’m thinking

John Scalzi posts eloquently on a topic that has been consuming my thoughts lately: what does it mean with the most effective tactic in a nation’s politics is to shamelessly lie, even after your lies have been exposed?

Definitely read the whole thing, but the part I wanted to quote is his explanation of why Obama should not adopt McCain’s tactics:

To go back to Obama and whether he should embrace the philosophy of flat-out lying, perhaps it makes sense for him to do so, but I certainly hope he doesn’t. Not because I think it’s better to have honor than power (although I don’t think it’s a bad thing to have honor rather than power) but because I believe that someone should be making the argument that one can win an election by something other than a willful determination to lie in people’s faces, and to encourage them to cheer those lies.

The fact of the matter is that at this point in the election, it’s not just about what positions the candidates hold on various political subjects. It’s also about how the candidates, and the parties behind, choose to see the people they intend to lead. The GOP and the McCain campaign, irrespective of its political positions, sees the American voter as deserving lies, lots of lies, repeated as often as necessary to win. And maybe they’re right about it. We’ll know soon enough.

Obama has famously said that the election is not about him, it’s about us. People accuse him of false modesty, but I think he nails it completely. This election presents us with two choices, and who the majority of Americans choose says a lot more about us than it does about the candidates.

Here’s Tom Toles on the same topic.

Alaska’s share of America’s energy

Since John McCain picked a certain person who will not be named as his running mate, I’ve seen a number of politicians (including the unnamed running mate) state that Alaska produces twenty percent of America’s energy. That sounded a bit off to me, but of course I didn’t follow up. Matthew Yglesias did, though, and reports that Alaska produces 3.5% of America’s energy (and 14% of America’s oil).

Factcheck.org has more on this topic.

Sarah Palin laid bare

Hopefully this will be my last Sarah Palin post. I just wanted to make sure to point out today’s New York Times front page article on her record in Alaska. Nobody who’s read it can argue that she’s anything but the typical Alaska politician. She’s a pursuer of vendettas, hirer of cronies, and tinpot autocrat, and there’s a damn good chance she’ll be the next Vice President of the United States.

Oh, and to an address a talking point I’m tired of hearing, running against an incumbent from your own party doesn’t make you anything other than ambitious. How do people think Barack Obama got his start in politics?

Finally, if you have an insatiable appetite for criticism of John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, read Andrew Sullivan.

James Fallows on Sarah Palin

Back on August 29, James Fallows made an observation about Sarah Palin and about running for President (or Vice President). Here’s how he described the stakes:

If someone is campaigning for the presidency or vice presidency, there’s an extra twist. That person has to have a line of argument to offer on any conceivable issue. Quick, without pausing in the next ninety seconds, tell me what you think about: the balance of relations between Taiwan and mainland China, and exactly what signals we’re sending to Hamas, and what we think about Russia’s role in the G-8 and potentially in NATO, and where North Korea stands on its nuclear pledges — plus Iran while we’re at it, plus the EU after the Irish vote, plus cap-and-trade as applied to India and China, and what’s the right future for South Ossetia; and let’s not even start on domestic issues.

And here’s how he described the inevitable outcome:

Let’s assume that Sarah Palin is exactly as smart and disciplined as Barack Obama. But instead of the year and a half of nonstop campaigning he has behind him, and Joe Biden’s even longer toughening-up process, she comes into the most intense period of the highest stakes campaign with absolutely zero warmup or preparation. If she has ever addressed an international issue, there’s no evidence of it in internet-land.

The smartest person in the world could not prepare quickly enough to know the pitfalls, and to sound confident while doing so, on all the issues she will be forced to address. This is long before she gets to a debate with Biden; it’s what the press is going to start out looking for.

This is the spectacle that began today.

Update: Here’s Fallows on her interview with Charlie Gibson.

Foreign Policy’s 20 questions for Sarah Palin

Looks like Foreign Policy decided to play along with my little game from yesterday. Here are their 20 questions, focused on foreign policy. They seem to be designed more as a test of knowledge (and even trivia) than a test of judgement or philosophy, and they feel a little like gotcha questions to me.

Update: Politico has solicited questions for Palin from a number of big names from both sides.

Update: Jack Shafer offers 10 questions of his own. I think we can be fairly certain that Sarah Palin won’t be sitting down to an interview with Shafer anytime soon.

Update: Palin’s local paper has prepared a list as well.

The politics of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae

Andrew Leonard posts about the politics of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae:

The critical difference between right and left points of view on this issue is that the right thinks the government shouldn’t be involved at all in the housing market, while the left believes that Fannie Mae — which was originally created during the Great Depression as a fully public agency entrusted with propping up the housing market — never should have been transformed into a semi-public, semi-private entity in the first place. This gets to the heart of a distinction made by Paul Krugman in his blog today between “nationalization” and “deprivatization.” Headlines declaring that Fannie and Freddie are being “nationalized” are running rampant through the blogosphere, summoning up visions of banana republics kicking out Yankee oil companies in the name of the revolution! But what’s really happening is that the bastard halfway privatization of Fannie Mae has now been revoked.

And here’s why Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac weren’t really the problem in the first place:

We shouldn’t be shocked at all that Wall Street went completely overboard in its love affair with housing market manipulation. That’s what happens when a market is left to its own devices, and government eschews its oversight responsibility. That’s what always happens. And when the mess gets big enough, government has to step in and clean everything up, which means that even if the feds had kept their hands totally clean — if there had been no Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac muddying the waters — some kind of public entity would have had to be created as the government vehicle for correcting market failure.

Interview questions for Sarah Palin

ABC’s Charlie Gibson has won the honor to be the first journalist to interview Sarah Palin since she was nominated to the Vice Presidency. It’s a great opportunity for him, and I imagine he’ll be working overtime getting ready, since everyone suspects that he was chosen because he can be counted on not to put any pressure on Palin. (Indeed, Josh Marshall reports that the terms of the interview guarantee that he won’t.)

Fortunately, those of us on the Internet are only hypothetically interviewing Sarah Palin, so we can ask whatever we like. When it comes to a candidate like Palin, who we don’t really know much about, it feels to me like an interview with her should be like a job interview. I think it’s a waste of time to ask “gotcha” questions, and that we won’t learn very much at all if she’s asked about her family or even about her scandals. I’m sure she has an answer all tucked away when it comes to why she supported the “Bridge to Nowhere” and then claimed she didn’t, or how she decided to fire the head of the Alaska state police.

What I’m interested in is her philosophy of government and the sensibilities she brings to the kinds of decisions a President has to make. With that, here are some questions I’d ask if I got to interview her.

  1. How do you define leadership?
  2. What are the qualities you look for when hiring subordinates?
  3. As an executive, what specific steps do you take to make sure that political appointees feel empowered to act independently using their best judgement? When they advise you, how do you make sure that you’re getting their honest opinion and aren’t just being told what you want to hear?
  4. What’s your process when you encounter a problem outside your area of expertise?
  5. What did you find to be the biggest difference between serving as mayor of your home town and governor of Alaska?
  6. What role do you see the United Nations playing in world affairs and United States foreign policy?
  7. What are the fundamental rights that we should grant to any prisoner detained by the United States government?
  8. Which basic risks should the US government take responsibility for insuring its citizens from? (Starvation? Poverty? Preventable disease? Job loss? Poverty in old age? Etc.)
  9. The governor of Alaska has line item veto power, and the United States President does not. Should the President have line item veto power? If it were granted to the President, how would that affect the separation of powers?
  10. How do you feel like the gap between perceived risks and actual risks affects the work of government?

There are ten from me. Anyone else have any questions?

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