There’s a reason why I’ve been more optimistic than many of my fellow Democrats about Obama’s chances on Tuesday. It’s the first hand observations of the competing ground games provided by fivethirtyeight.com’s On the Road series. Today they posted a wrap-up of sorts.

Here’s what they’ve seen:

In Cortez, CO, we had Republican volunteers pose for action-shot photos. The same in Española, New Mexico. Posed. For some time at the outset, we were willing to give Republicans the benefit of the doubt. They convinced us they were really working, and that we had just had unfortunate timing. It wasn’t until the pattern of “just missed it” started to sound like a drumbeat in our ears that we began to grow skeptical. We never “just missed” any of the Obama volunteer work, because it goes on nonstop, every day, in every office, in every corner of America.

I went to the Obama rally in downtown Raleigh on Wednesday, and the number of volunteers working the event was incredible. I was reminded at least two dozen times to early vote (I already had), and I was asked to sign up to volunteer at least half a dozen times (I did). I still don’t think the frenzy of neighbor to neighbor activity that the Obama campaign is fully reflected in the polls. We’ll see if I turn out to be right.