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Tag: politics (page 22 of 23)

Hillary Clinton’s argument for stealing the nomination

Even if Hillary Clinton is losing in terms of the delegate count going into the convention, she doesn’t plan on losing the nomination. Her plan is to convince more superdelegates to vote for her than vote for Obama, and to make sure that the delegates from Florida and Michigan have their votes counted, even though those primaries were held under the assumption that those votes would not count. Unsurprisingly, she won both of those states, in fact, Barack Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan.

Her campaign has created a new Web site, The Delegate Hub, that attempts to explain why voters should be perfectly OK with Hillary engineering a win at the convention.

Here’s the real message from the Clinton campaign: “Voters of Texas and Ohio, I really need your votes, but if I don’t get them, I’m going to try to figure out a way to subvert the process so that your votes don’t really count.”

Clay Shirky has written a great post explaining why this is a very bad idea. I hope he’s right. I’m posting about this because widespread exposure of Clinton’s machinations is the key to building a real backlash against them.

Yet another Obama economics article

Why is it that people keep publishing articles about the economic philosophy that underpins Barack Obama’s policy proposals without publishing similar articles about the other Presidential candidates? This time, Noam Scheiber writes about Obama’s economics. I find the pragmatism of a behavioral economics-based approach very appealing.

There’s a ton of good stuff in the article, but I’ll highlight a few paragraphs:

And, yet, it’s not just the details of Obama’s policies that suggest a behavioral approach. In some respects, the sensibility behind the behaviorist critique of economics is one shared by all the Obama wonks, whether they’re domestic policy nerds or grizzled foreign policy hands. Despite Obama’s reputation for grandiose rhetoric and utopian hope-mongering, the Obamanauts aren’t radicals–far from it. They’re pragmatists–people who, when an existing paradigm clashes with reality, opt to tweak that paradigm rather than replace it wholesale. As Thaler puts it, “Physics with friction is not as beautiful. But you need it to get rockets off the ground.” It might as well be the motto for Obama’s entire policy shop.

Like their intellectual godfather Thaler, the Obama wonks aren’t particularly interested in tearing down existing paradigms, just adjusting and extending them when they become outdated. (Thaler urges his students to master the same traditional, mathematical models their colleagues do if they want to be taken seriously.) For example, a central tenet of the economic thinking favored by Bill Clinton and his Treasury secretary, Robert Rubin, was that cutting the deficit lowers long-term interest rates, which in turn stimulates the economy. The Obamanauts are perfectly willing to accept the relationship between long-term rates and economic growth. But recent evidence suggests that low rates weren’t quite as central to the success of the Clinton years as they appeared, and that investments in infrastructure and R&D might be as important as deficit reduction. Not surprisingly, Obama plans to focus less on the deficit than Clinton did.

And yet, just because the Obamanauts are intellectually modest and relatively free of ideology, that doesn’t mean their policy goals lack ambition. In many cases, the opposite is true. Obama’s plan to reduce global warming involves an ambitious cap-and-trade arrangement that would lower carbon emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. But cap-and-trade–in which the government limits the overall level of emissions and allows companies to buy and sell pollution permits–is itself a market-oriented approach. The companies most efficient at cutting emissions will sell permits to less efficient companies, achieving the desired reductions with minimal drag on the economy.

And here’s how that philosophy works in the realm of foreign policy:

Still, there’s probably no better illustration of the Obama camp’s Hamiltonian sensibility than the debate over the war. Former Clinton officials like Lake, Rice, and Danzig all opposed the idea from the get-go (as did Hamilton himself). In doing so, they faced down pleas from within the Democrats’ permanent State-Department-in-waiting that opposition would be politically disastrous. “Many Democrats had opposed [the first Gulf war]. And these people–particularly the older people, felt like that had been a big mistake. They didn’t want to make it twice,” recalls an Obama adviser. “It got rather acrimonious.”

In the face of these arguments, the would-be Obamanauts didn’t invoke some sweeping alternative paradigm–say, the kind of abstract theorizing you’d get from a Kissinger tome. They simply pointed out where the Bush doctrine of preemption and democracypromotion broke down–the “anomalies,” if you will. Intuition told them that an easy war was a fantasy, that the United States would face a long and brutal occupation. Many had security clearances during the Clinton administration and had never seen credible evidence of an Iraqi nuclear program. Almost everyone worried that an invasion would detract from the fight against Al Qaeda. “It should have been obvious to anyone who’d served in government that we can’t walk and chew gum at same time,” says one Obama adviser. “That’s not a paradigm, that’s a judgment.”

Lessig out

Larry Lessing has thought the better of his Congressional run and decided to drop out.

Lessig for Congress

I endorse Larry Lessig for Congress in California’s 12th district but only on the condition that he keeps blogging if he wins.

Something tells me this is going to be a very well-funded Congressional campaign.

What the prediction markets think

Here’s what the bettors on the InTrade prediction market think of Hillary Clinton’s chances to be the Democratic nominee over the past couple of weeks:

Closing Prices chart - Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008

Larry Lessig on Obama

If you have 20 minutes and are going to vote today (or at any point this year), check out Larry Lessig’s video endorsement of Barack Obama.

More on Obama’s economics

Andrew Leonard posts today about Barack Obama’s views on economics. It’s the best analysis I’ve yet seen of Obama’s economic philosophy, and is a bit of a deeper look than the one provided in the New York Times article I’ve linked to a couple of times. Leonard describes Obama’s economic orientation as left-libertarian, which probably describes my own general outlook pretty well.

As you can probably guess, I really dig this stuff, so links to similar articles on any of the remaining viable candidates are much appreciated. On that note, you’d better post any Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee notes tonight, because by tomorrow evening those guys will be toast.

On Hillary Clinton and Florida

Last year there was a huge squabble over the order in which various states would hold their primaries. A few state parties wanted to subject the unfortunate citizens of their states to more automated phone calls and other annoying forms of campaigning, so they moved up their primary dates. The national Democratic party penalized two of them — Florida and Michigan — by decertifying their delegates. The delegates assigned in those primaries will not count toward naming the nominee. That may or may not have been a good idea, but all of the Democratic Presidential candidates agreed to abide by the decision and not campaign in either state. None of the major contenders even had their name on the ballot in Michigan other than Hillary Clinton.

Hillary won the Michigan primary by a huge amount (for obvious reasons), and it looks like she’s going to win Florida as well. Now her campaign is maneuvering to insure that those delegates are counted at the convention. In other words, it seems clear that she is planning on going back on the agreement she made with the other candidates.

I’ll say this. If Hillary Clinton does renege on her agreement and winds up being the Democratic nominee for President, I will not vote for her in November, regardless of her opponent. Either your word counts or it doesn’t.

Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama

I’ve been trying to figure out what it really means to vote for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Their differences are much more stylistic than substantive, or at least that’s how it seems to me. Republican voters have the advantage of being able to draw plenty of contrasts among the candidates on that side of the aisle. A vote for John McCain is a vote for something very different than a vote for Mike Huckabee or for Mitt Romney. With the Democrats, it’s a bit tougher to judge, so I’m always looking for help from the media.

A few weeks ago the New York Times ran a great article contrasting the economic philosophies of Hillary and Obama. Now George Packer has written a long profile of both of them that describes the differences in how they campaign and how they would govern. If you’re going to vote for a Democrat this year and you haven’t already made up your mind, it’s a definite must read.

Hoping for better politics

Veteran North Carolina political observer Kirk Jones explains why 2008 may really turn out to be a <a href= http://www.exileonjonesstreet.com/2008/01/27/impressive-win/”>transformational election. Not only did Democrats turn out almost twice as many voters for their 2008 primary as they did in 2004, but they also did so without resorting to the kinds of petty corruption that politicians traditionally resort to. I’m as skeptical as anyone about just about everything, but even I look for signs of hope.

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