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Tag: economics (page 9 of 10)

Links for March 22

  • Exposure: Philip Gourevitch and Errol Morris on the photographs from Abu Ghraib in the New Yorker. Morris has a new documentary on Abu Ghraib coming out on April 25 called Standard Operating Procedure. It’s tough to believe that Donald Rumsfeld and George W Bush will never go to jail after reading this article.
  • Marginal Revolution: Why have burglaries declined? Globalization has made manufactured goods so cheap that the incentive to steal them has been reduced.
  • Compiler: New Wiki-Style Features Allow Anyone to Edit Google Maps. It’ll be interesting to see how this experiment works out.
  • Edmunds.com: We Test the Tips. Edmunds tested a bunch of “better gas mileage” tips to determine which ones will actually improve your car’s fuel economy. Driving less aggressively seems to offer the biggest bang for the buck.
  • Andrew Brown: The nerd is the enemy of civilisation. ELIZA creator on RMS and his friends at MIT in the 70s.
  • furbo.org: Vote for virtualization. Not allowing virtualization puts OS X behind the times.

Links from March 16th and 17th

Is the Fed losing traction?

The word is that the Fed is going to cut overnight interest rates by 100 basis points this week. That’s 1% to you and me. It would lower the rate to 2%. I’m wondering what effect this will have in terms of arresting the current economic crisis.

The fed funds rate (which is explained in Wikipedia) governs the interest rates that banks charge one another on overnight loans. I won’t bother to go into more detail, but suffice it to say that the lower this rate is, the higher the incentive for banks (and thus, everyone else) to borrow money which can then in turn be lent to businesses, consumers, or other banks. The idea is that this borrowing is an engine for economic growth.

The problem right now is not that borrowing money is too expensive, it’s that there aren’t assets out there that people want to buy. That’s what killed Bear Stearns. Bear Stearns, being a bank, borrowed a bunch of money from people and then put that money into investments. Their creditors decided that those investments were so poor that if they didn’t ask for their money right away, they were never going to get it. Not being able to find new suckers to loan them money and being unable to liquidate any of their investments left Bear Stearns in a position to default on a bunch of debt. That precipitated this weekend’s three way deal between Bear Stearns, JP Morgan, and the federal government.

Bear Stearns’ problem is one shared by many people holding investments these days, which is that nobody knows how to value those investments. Investments are valued based on risk. Treasury bonds are low risk, so they pay a low return. Credit card debt is high risk, so it pays a high return. Because the real estate market is in total chaos, nobody knows what the risk level is for mortgage-backed securities, and if you can’t gauge the risk level of an investment, you can’t sell it. Based on the write offs we’re seeing in the banking industry, chances are most banks are holding a lot of investments that are off the charts in terms of risk. They’re going to wind up being worth nothing.

To return to my point, if the problem right now is that nobody sees any investments they trust, will the Fed cutting interest rates do much to jump start economic activity? It seems like the Fed has to do cut the rate, for psychological reasons if nothing else, but is there any reason to expect it to help. I’m no economist and I’m hardly a business person, but I do wonder what’s going on here.

Links from March 14th

Yet another Obama economics article

Why is it that people keep publishing articles about the economic philosophy that underpins Barack Obama’s policy proposals without publishing similar articles about the other Presidential candidates? This time, Noam Scheiber writes about Obama’s economics. I find the pragmatism of a behavioral economics-based approach very appealing.

There’s a ton of good stuff in the article, but I’ll highlight a few paragraphs:

And, yet, it’s not just the details of Obama’s policies that suggest a behavioral approach. In some respects, the sensibility behind the behaviorist critique of economics is one shared by all the Obama wonks, whether they’re domestic policy nerds or grizzled foreign policy hands. Despite Obama’s reputation for grandiose rhetoric and utopian hope-mongering, the Obamanauts aren’t radicals–far from it. They’re pragmatists–people who, when an existing paradigm clashes with reality, opt to tweak that paradigm rather than replace it wholesale. As Thaler puts it, “Physics with friction is not as beautiful. But you need it to get rockets off the ground.” It might as well be the motto for Obama’s entire policy shop.

Like their intellectual godfather Thaler, the Obama wonks aren’t particularly interested in tearing down existing paradigms, just adjusting and extending them when they become outdated. (Thaler urges his students to master the same traditional, mathematical models their colleagues do if they want to be taken seriously.) For example, a central tenet of the economic thinking favored by Bill Clinton and his Treasury secretary, Robert Rubin, was that cutting the deficit lowers long-term interest rates, which in turn stimulates the economy. The Obamanauts are perfectly willing to accept the relationship between long-term rates and economic growth. But recent evidence suggests that low rates weren’t quite as central to the success of the Clinton years as they appeared, and that investments in infrastructure and R&D might be as important as deficit reduction. Not surprisingly, Obama plans to focus less on the deficit than Clinton did.

And yet, just because the Obamanauts are intellectually modest and relatively free of ideology, that doesn’t mean their policy goals lack ambition. In many cases, the opposite is true. Obama’s plan to reduce global warming involves an ambitious cap-and-trade arrangement that would lower carbon emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. But cap-and-trade–in which the government limits the overall level of emissions and allows companies to buy and sell pollution permits–is itself a market-oriented approach. The companies most efficient at cutting emissions will sell permits to less efficient companies, achieving the desired reductions with minimal drag on the economy.

And here’s how that philosophy works in the realm of foreign policy:

Still, there’s probably no better illustration of the Obama camp’s Hamiltonian sensibility than the debate over the war. Former Clinton officials like Lake, Rice, and Danzig all opposed the idea from the get-go (as did Hamilton himself). In doing so, they faced down pleas from within the Democrats’ permanent State-Department-in-waiting that opposition would be politically disastrous. “Many Democrats had opposed [the first Gulf war]. And these people–particularly the older people, felt like that had been a big mistake. They didn’t want to make it twice,” recalls an Obama adviser. “It got rather acrimonious.”

In the face of these arguments, the would-be Obamanauts didn’t invoke some sweeping alternative paradigm–say, the kind of abstract theorizing you’d get from a Kissinger tome. They simply pointed out where the Bush doctrine of preemption and democracypromotion broke down–the “anomalies,” if you will. Intuition told them that an easy war was a fantasy, that the United States would face a long and brutal occupation. Many had security clearances during the Clinton administration and had never seen credible evidence of an Iraqi nuclear program. Almost everyone worried that an invasion would detract from the fight against Al Qaeda. “It should have been obvious to anyone who’d served in government that we can’t walk and chew gum at same time,” says one Obama adviser. “That’s not a paradigm, that’s a judgment.”

More on Obama’s economics

Andrew Leonard posts today about Barack Obama’s views on economics. It’s the best analysis I’ve yet seen of Obama’s economic philosophy, and is a bit of a deeper look than the one provided in the New York Times article I’ve linked to a couple of times. Leonard describes Obama’s economic orientation as left-libertarian, which probably describes my own general outlook pretty well.

As you can probably guess, I really dig this stuff, so links to similar articles on any of the remaining viable candidates are much appreciated. On that note, you’d better post any Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee notes tonight, because by tomorrow evening those guys will be toast.

Quit blaming poor people

As the mortgage crisis unfolds and expands, you see a lot of blame laid on subprime loans, and more specifically, people who signed up for subprime loans. In fact, subprime was voted the word of the year. People are clearly responsible for the contracts they sign, but simply blaming people who took out mortgages they couldn’t pay back is the wrong way to look at the problem.

Last month I talked about the similarity of the mortgage crisis to the junk bond crisis. One of the most important similarities between that implosion and this one is that the entire market was driven not by demand for loans but rather demand for investments. Here’s the question you rarely see asked. Why were banks so eager to sign people up for such incredibly risky mortgages?

The reason is that they had already originated as many good mortgages as they could, and there was still more demand for mortgage backed securities. So mortgage brokers had to find more mortgages to sell, and the easiest way to do it was to loan money to people who really shouldn’t be buying a house, or to convince people to upgrade into larger houses that they couldn’t afford by offering them low monthly payments.

So when you search for the source of the crisis, look in the direction of the big investors who were willing to buy up any old mortgage backed security, no matter what its risk profile was. Those people put billions and billions of dollars on the line, and funded an avalanche of loans sold to the confused, the ignorant, the overly optimistic, and the dishonest.

As the economy continues to go badly, you’ll see more and more people blaming the same people who are losing their homes and watching their financial futures go down the tubes. And while I agree that they do bear responsibility for the decisions they made, they didn’t create this crisis. In many ways they’re the victims.

Definition of the law of unintended consequences

Alex Tabarrok posts the best short definition of the law of unintended consequences I’ve seen:

The law of unintended consequences is what happens when a simple system tries to regulate a complex system.

Bill Gates at Davos

FP Passport reports that Bill Gates will give a 30 minute speech Thursday at the World Economic Forum entitled “A New Approach to Capitalism in the 21st Century.” He will challenge business and government to do more to address the problems of disease and poverty in the developing world.

Andrew Leonard on today’s rate cut

Here’s Salon’s Andrew Leonard on today’s 75 point emergency rate cut from the Federal Reserve:

If Bernanke has been “wrong” so many times, was he wrong Tuesday morning? As of this writing, around 2:20 p.m. EST, the lead headline on the Wall Street Journal declared “Fed’s Deep Cut Appears to Soothe Markets.” After falling almost 500 points at the start of trading, impelled by massive sell-offs on stock exchanges around the world, the Dow Jones industrial average had fought its way back to a relatively minor 118-point drop. What if Bernanke had done nothing, or even waited just eight days until the regular meeting of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors meeting to deliver his rate cut? If Monday, Jan. 21, is already being called the 21st century version of Black Monday, summoning up memories of the crash of 1987, what would Tuesday have looked like without a rate cut bailout?

Given the clear connection between Tuesday’s rate cut and global market turmoil, it is hard to avoid at least one conclusion. Bernanke has proven, once and for all, that juicing the stock market is now considered Job No. 1 for the Federal Reserve Bank. The material effects of rate cuts do not show up in economic growth statistics for months or even years after their enactment. By making an emergency “inter-meeting” cut a mere eight days before its regularly scheduled meeting, Bernanke is conducting economic policy in order to appease market psychology. The fragile psyches of Wall Street traders who played such a pivotal role in creating this mess by romping through the derivatives wonderland, are now in control of government strategy.

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